Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
